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Analysis of London’s trade with BRIC markets (2007)
websitebuilder-hub • Jan 21, 2018
The Major of London in 2007 commissioned OC to carry out an analysis of the UK’s trade with the large emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called ‘BRICs’ and to draw conclusions and make recommendations for London.
This work was requested in the context of an overall drive by the Mayor’s office to build on London’s status as a world status involving initiatives such as stronger links with Beijing, London’s predecessor as an Olympic city, and the attraction of tourists and investors to London.
OC used data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database and Direction of Trade database to establish the recent growth trends and future projected growth rates of the BRICS in aggregate and per capita terms. It showed that on plausible assumptions China would overtake the USA as the world’s largest economy in 2027 and that India would do the same by 2050. It also showed, using income distribution data for the BRICs, that the purchasing power of the upper 20% of populations in China and India was equivalent to that of the UK’s top 6 trading partners after the USA. Yet we also showed that, with the exception of India, the UK is lagging behind other industrialized economies in its share of world exports to the BRICs.
Based on our analysis we recommended that the Mayor a) develop a trade strategy based on wholesale opportunities in China and India and retail/consumer opportunities in Russia and top 20% income brackets in China and India with longer term retail/consumer prospects for wider population in China and India; b) investigate the potential for using trade with other emerging economies such as Pakistan, Africa and Near East as element in Mayor’s drive to promote social inclusion; c) assess ways of ensuring that the overall impact of tourism, inward investment and trade promotion spend in London was greater than the sum of its parts; and d) develop a communication strategy to help crystallize for London businesses the opportunity represented by the BRICS.
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